| Distributed Hydrologic Prediction: Sensitivity to Accuracy of Initial Soil Moisture Conditions and Radar Rainfall Input |
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학술지명 ASCE
저자 박진혁,Baxter.E Vieux,강부식
발표일 2009-07-28
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The aim of this study is to evaluate prediction accuracy and sensitivity of a distributed hydrologic model. Accurate predictionsof runoff are needed where reservoir operations are used to control flooding and to manage water resources. The study area consists ofwatershed areas that are influent to reservoirs in the 967 km2 Yongdam basin, and the 2,293 km2 Namgang basin located on the KoreanPeninsula. For these basins with complex terrain, a physics-based distributed hydrologic model is set up with geospatial data, calibrated,and used to test sensitivity to accuracy of radar and rain gauge input and initial conditions. The events studied range in magnitude from86 to over 249 mm and include two typhoons and two heavy rainfall events. Radar reflectivity is converted to rainfall rates using Z-Rrelationships, and then corrected for bias using a spatially variable correction derived from the rain gauge networks that cover both basins.Adjustment of assumed model parameters for the Namgang and Yongdam watersheds improves hydrograph peak and volume. Theprediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated using rainfall estimated with uncorrected radar and with rain gauge data as model input.Use of gauge-corrected radar results in better prediction accuracy than was achieved with raw radar or gauge-only input. The sensitivityof the watershed response to the initial degree of saturation is dependent on event magnitude but becomes increasingly sensitive at higherdegrees of initial saturation. In both watersheds, the initial saturation of the soil affects prediction accuracy more than the uncertaintycaused by model parameters or gauge-only input. |