| 댐 붕괴 홍수로 인한 하류부 인명피해 예측 |
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학술지명 한국수자원학회
저자 김기영,이재영,이종석
발표일 2014-09-22
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In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived fromanalysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applyingin LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicabilityfor domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocityand arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundationdepth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the numberof people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, floodhazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determininglethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam breakfloods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstreamapplying probabilistic flood scenarios. |