| Improvement of Dam Inflow Forecasting by Blending Ensemble NWP Rainfall with Radar Prediction |
|---|
|
학술지명 IAHR(세계수환경공학회)
저자 박진혁,강신욱,유완식,최현구
발표일 2024-06-04
|
|
The accuracy of radar-based rainfall prediction performs best for very short lead time, however the accuracy of radar prediction rapidly decreases with increasing lead times. At longer lead times, higher accuracy QPFs are produced by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which solve the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere. This study proposes hybrid blending system of ensemble information from radar-based prediction and numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve the accuracy of dam inflow forecasting. First, an improved radar image extrapolation method, which is comprised of the orographic rainfall identification and the error ensemble scheme, is introduced. Then, ensemble NWP outputs are updated based on mean bias of the error fields considering error structure. Finally, the improved radar-based prediction and updated NWP rainfall considering bias correction are blended dynamically with changing weight functions, which are computed from the expected skill of each radar prediction and updated NWP rainfall. The proposed method is verified temporally and spatially through a target event and is applied to the hybrid dam inflow forecasting for updating with 1hour intervals. The newly proposed method shows sufficient reproducibility in peak discharge value, and could reduce the width of ensemble spread, which is expressed as the uncertainty, in the dam inflow forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon ‘Talas’ of 2011 over the two catchments, which are Futatsuno (356.1km2) dam catchment. |