| 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 반영한 댐의 안정성 분석 |
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학술지명 한국기후변화학회지
저자 이기호,장수형,김미은,손예주
발표일 2024-10-31
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In Korea’s water resources sector, it was analyzed that the frequency of extreme rainfall during summer has increased over the recent 30 years. The average annual precipitation when applying the climate change is predicted to increase by at least 4% and up to 16% in the second half of the 21st century. When designing dam construction and flood control capacity improvement projects, the probable maximum precipitation(PMP) and probable maximum flood(PMF) are estimated in the hydrological analysis process and the results are reflected to ensure the stability of the dam. In this study, considering recent extreme precipitation patterns, the impact of climate change on dams was analyzed and evaluated. Future climate change projection PMPs were calculated and compared for 37 dams under K-water’s management. Also, the study examined temporal and spatial changes in PMP by dividing the entire period into three periods(P1: 2021-2040, P2: 2041-2070, P3: 2071-2100) and applying spatial interpolation method. A hydrological stability review of the four dams(Soyang, Choongju, Hoengsung, Pyeonghwa) in Han River was conducted through comparing existing PMF(dam construction, design, and flood control capacity improvement projects) with projected PMF from climate change scenarios for three periods by each dam. In other words, the rate of change in PMF compared to the existing one, overflow of the dam, and whether it was possible to secure spare capacity of the dam were evaluated. It is a major periodic evaluation when considering the timing of dam construction and recent extreme rainfall pattern although the dams underwent a hydrological stability assessment for PMP and PMF. |