| Future projections of hourly extreme rainfall events over South Korea using convection permitting climate model |
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학술지명 Busan IAMAS-IACS-IAPSO Joint Assembly 2025
저자 민승기,박찬일,손석우,이동현,차동현,서가영
발표일 2025-07-21
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This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the summertime hourly extreme rainfall event (HER) over South Korea. The UKESM-forced regional climate model is utilized to simulate HER over South Korea in the historical (2001-2005) and future periods (2091-2095) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at a convection-permitting resolution (2.5 km). A significant increase in future HER intensity and frequency appears in July, with the frequency increases about 1.7 times for SSP1-2.6 and about four times for SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The month of maximum HER frequency is also projected to shift from August to July. When clustering the HERs into six representative weather patterns, SSPS-8.5 scenarios show a predominant increase in weather patterns characterized by a frontal boundary between low and high pressure in July. Our results suggest that the future sub-seasonal evolution of HER over South Korea may change with the intensification of subtropical high and the deepening of mid-level trough according to different future scenarios. |